The Global Gas Supply Forecast is a rigorous, probabilistic set of natural gas supply forecasts by country to the year 2030. Similar to the work on global liquids supply completed in early 2005, PFC Energy's natural gas outlook provides a P10/P50/P90 view of each country's gas supply based on a range of different domestic and export demand assumptions.
The supply forecasts allow executives and planners to assess critical issues such as:
- How long will a country's domestic gas reserve base support consumption at projected growth rates?
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How much could be added to supply with successful exploration results?
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How does the supply/demand balance change as a function of demand growth assumptions?
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What does the regional balance look like?
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How secure is the gas supply from LNG sources from a geological perspective?
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What is the range of uncertainty around the gas supply outlook?
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What is the strategic importance of LNG in company portfolios relative to other business segments and investments (e.g. deepwater)?
Gas Supply Projected By Segment
Each country's supply elements are categorized by their supply segments:
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A probabilistic baseline production forecast from discovered resources
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Current producing base and projected decline rate
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Forecasted production for identified new development projects
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Forecasted production for discovered reserves with no reported development plans
A forecast of production from yet-to-be-discovered reserve is based on the following:
A probabilistic forecast of each country shows the range of possible production taking into account the existing producing base, exploration, PUDs (proved, undeveloped discoveries) and new source projects. These models are designed for planners to help assess which countries (over the next 25 years) or regions would likely require changing natural gas flows based on their current reserves and a continuation of recent exploration success. In addition to a series of models for each country and region, there are summary reports and a series of maps which summarize the results of this analysis.
Gas Demand Ranges Drive Supply Forecasts
An iterative gas demand model projects future consumption growth rates over a P10 to P90 range. Estimates are based on historic consumption patterns as well as PFC Energy''s views of likely size and timing of new infrastructure projects using natural gas. Each country''s gas supply/demand balance, and the incremental supply surplus or shortfall, is projected forward in a probabilistic way.
Regional & Global Balances
The regional projections of probabilistic supply and demand scenarios provide clear views of when regions may or may not "flip" from net exporters to net importers. For example, in the case of Western Europe, using a probabilistic model of consumption versus domestic production, our models indicate that the excess of demand over supply will continue to grow at historic rates through the middle of the next decade. However, if discovery rates do not improve, there will be a significant acceleration of this differential post 2015-causing gas import requirements to triple between 2005 and 2020. The big three gas producers, the UK, Norway and the Netherlands, are likely to become net importers around 2020.