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  • Long-Term Oil Scenarios

    PFC Energy's long-term scenarios describe three alternative pathways through 2030 for the global oil industry.  The scenarios include the supply of crude oil, the demand for a wide range of oil products, production capacities in OPEC and non-OPEC countries, crude prices, product prices, refining margins and crude flows.  PFC Energy produces and updates these scenarios using a comprehensive, iterative process that incorporates a broad array of quantitative and qualitative industry drivers and uses the firm's extensive suite of complex, interlinked models and databases. 
     
    We deliver the scenarios in a number of different formats, depending on client needs.  These range from interactive client workshops to detailed quantitative projections.  Individual clients may customize the scenarios by incorporating different assumptions or constraints and/or focusing in greater detail on their implications for specific sectors, products or geographical regions.

    Clients use PFC Energy's long-term oil scenarios to support their business decision making and risk assessment in many different ways:

    • A major IOC asked PFC Energy to assess its downstream portfolio under the three scenarios from both regional and global perspectives and identify opportunities to strengthen its competitive position
    • A national oil company asked PFC Energy to advise on marketing its liquids production using medium-term forecasts based on PFC Energy's long-term oil scenarios 
    • A regional independent asked PFC Energy to assess a potential new refinery in Asia within the context of the long term oil price scenarios and their implications for demand growth, competitive refining additions and refining margins
    • A contract drilling company asked PFC Energy to model future demand for its services under the different long-term oil scenarios 
    • A helicopter services provider used PFC Energy's long-term economic scenarios in its annual planning exercise

    For more information on PFC Energy's Advisory and Consulting services, contact consulting@pfcenergy.com.

Areas of ExpertiseMarket DynamicsGeopoliticsIntegrated StrategiesUpstreamMid- Downstream GasDownstream Oil