New fuel efficiency standards ambitious but attainable

A new study from PFC Energy finds that meeting the accelerated 2016 Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards announced by President Barack Obama will reduce US gasoline consumption by 1.1 million barrels per day compared to 2008 and by 120,000 barrels per day compared with the goals set by the 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA).
 
PFC Energy offers an interactive flash model below that allows users to test different scenarios. The model allows users to see how US fuel consumption and carbon dioxide emissions could evolve through 2025 based on changes in vehicle sales, technology and ethanol use. 
 


The most likely scenarios for meeting the new standard do not require radical shifts in vehicle types. Cars and light trucks using conventional engine technology are likely to retain their substantial market share and incrementally increase their fuel efficiency, while strong hybrids will probably increase their market share from the current 3% to some 10%.

The model shows that the new standards will make it more difficult to comply with another requirement of the EISA, the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) that requires blending over 21 billion barrels of ethanol (equivalent to 1.4 million barrels per day) into the gasoline pool in 2016.

The model also shows that meeting the 2016 fuel efficiency standard does not guarantee achieving the target 250 grams of carbon dioxide per mile. Auto manufacturers are most likely to achieve this target by using EPA credits for reducing emissions from automobile air conditioners rather than by making larger fuel economy improvements.

Because of a technical difference in how the government measures efficiency, the 35.5 MPG goal equates to a much less radical real world fuel economy of only 28 MPG. Further, because the new targets are pegged to vehicle size, manufacturers that sell larger vehicles may comply with the regulation yet fall short of the 35.5 MPG target. Gasoline prices, which greatly influence consumer vehicle preferences, will therefore crucially affect the average efficiency achieved.

For more information, contact: downstreaminfo@pfcenergy.com

 
Click to view the interactive USA Vehicle Standards tool
 
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